Recent Analysis
  • By Angus Brown

Rising finished prices no match for inputs.

Over the hooks grainfed cattle prices have hit a 13 month high recently, as finished cattle supply remains tight. However, the increase in the finished cattle price is still not matching the costs of inputs, with lotfeeders still operating largely in the red.

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Cattle
  • By Matt Dalgleish

A season spent at the edge of normal.

The 2018 season has seen the largest range in the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) in over a decade recording a 313¢ movement from the 571¢ trough in April to the 884¢ peak in September. This article looks at the seasonal percentage gain/losses in the ESTLI and the National Mutton Indicator to identify just how abnormal price movements have been this year and what may be in store for the ESTLI as the spring flush gets underway.

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Sheep
  • By Andrew Woods

Fibre diameter by region.

Following on from the article earlier this week, which showed markedly different wool micron categories coming from different regions around Australia, this article looks at rainfall in these regions as a tool to both explain changes in the average fibre diameter and provide a guide to likely changes in the coming year.

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Wool
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Canola: Finally catching up

In early September, I wrote an article on my concerns related to the lack of movement in canola pricing. It was pointing towards a likelihood of increased pricing due to the very tight balance sheet within eastern Australia. It is worthwhile refreshing a month later.

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Grain
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

A look back at the past, to see the ‘futures’

The use of financial price risk management tools by farmers remains quite low, with very few producers utilizing the opportunity to minimize their price risk. In this update, we provide a simple analysis since 1980 to present, to determine the value in hedging at seeding.

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Grain
  • By Andrew Woods

Merino wool supply is low and tricky to analyse.

Merino wool production in Australia (which given low stock levels equates to supply) is a hot topic in the supply chain. Participants are coming to grips with a market which has strong demand, greasy wool supplies (already low) under pressure from drought and no real supply management beyond turning up at auctions, assuming what was offered last year will be offered again this year. Against this background, this article takes a look at Merino fleece wool sales by micron by region.

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Wool
  • By Angus Brown

Forward contracts breaking with tradition

With rising concerns surrounding the supply of finished lambs during the summer, export processors have released forward contracts. We say the forward contracts are breaking with tradition because they are pegged well above the prices of the same time last year, which they no doubt had to be if they wanted to get any traction.

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Sheep
  • By Matt Dalgleish

September mourning for processor margins, or is it?

The Mecardo cut-out model shows processor margins narrowing 70% over September, as rising input prices put the squeeze on meat works. Although, it’s not all doom and gloom as margins remain in the black and are trending above the long-term September seasonal average.

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Cattle