About 10 years ago I heard a grain marketing advisor say in relation to using futures or physical prices, “the basis will tell you what to do”. If we apply this to the current market, the basis is definitely saying hold canola, and sell wheat, despite prices being at the opposite end of the historical spectrum.
With the wool supply chain reported to be operating on a hand to mouth basis, with little merino stock held, changes to fresh shorn wool becomes of great interest. In this sense the market is the opposite to the conditions which existed during the aftermath of the collapse of the Reserve Price Scheme, from 1991 through to the end of the 1990s. This article takes a look at the latest AWTA wool volume data for November.
Here’s the question facing many lamb producers in South West Victoria and South East South Australia. Do I take the very good store lamb prices on offer, or do I use abundant feed and cheap grain to grow them out into a trade or heavy lamb?
The Mecardo processor cut out model shows that margins for November have kicked into positive territory as a combination of softening cattle prices and stable, to slightly improved, beef export prices provided a boost to the processor break-even level.
The growing season has been interesting to say the least. We have seen flooding, hail and frost in strong proportions around the growing areas. The overall crop has continued to grow, and the numbers being bandied around by crop forecasters and the trade vary widely. In this analysis, we will look at the various projections.
At the AWI AGM last week mention was made of the increase in the gross sale value of the Australian wool clip from $2 billion in 2009-10 to an estimated $2.9 billion in the current season. The 45% increase in value is rightly seen as a good sign for the industry. This article takes a look at the change in value in the context of what has happened to other apparel fibres.
A lot of lamb market talk in recent months has focussed on the dearth of lamb supply through most of spring, and what this means for heavy lambs in late summer and autumn. A couple of major heavy lamb buyers and exporters laid their cards on the table last week, pricing lambs for February and March.
Some information out of the US this week suggested the market for lean trim was likely to weaken in January. Lower beef export prices would no doubt put some pressure on cattle prices, and as such it is prudent to take a look at what might drive lower values in the New Year.
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Mecardo information is provided to assist in your marketing decisions. It contains a range of data and views on the current market. It is not intended to constitute advice for a specific purpose. Before taking any action in relation to information contained within this report, you should seek advice from a qualified professional. The information is obtained from a variety of sources and neither Mecardo nor Ag Concepts Advisory will be held liable for any loss or damage whatsoever that may arise from the use of information or for any error or mis-statement contained in this report.
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