The recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) cattle slaughter data for December 2017 shows a spike in the proportion of females as a percentage of total slaughter for Queensland and suggests the delayed start to the wet season is leading to a herd destock in the north. However, the ABS data is lagged so its unclear yet if this trend has carried into 2018 – fortunately the underlying EYCI data may provide a clue as to what northern restockers are doing at the moment.
Last week we had a stab at using Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) sheep slaughter forecast to put a price on mutton for the coming year. In theory, doing this for lamb should be easier, with less volatility in price and demand, so let’s have a go.
Historic seasonal supply patterns influence the expectations of future supply and sometimes correlate with seasonal price patterns. The Australian wool industry is fortunate to have reliable supply/sales data stretching back to the mid-1990s which allows us to look for and understand better supply patterns in the Australian wool clip. This article takes a look at some of these patterns.
Traditionally the ‘pricing window’ for wheat in the Chicago Futures market runs from January through to March. The reason being, that it is at this time of year that the most uncertainty exists in regard to Northern Hemisphere wheat crops and what sort of volume might be produced. If we are in the pricing window, some serious thought needs to be put into target levels for futures and swaps.
Sale yard prices last week, as reported by Meat and Livestock Australia’s NLRS, show Merino lamb spreads to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) are performing better than expected for this time in the season – especially in Western Australia. Given the record wool prices being achieved at the moment, it probably comes as no surprise that Merino lamb across the country are doing so well, but why is WA Merino lamb particularly strong?
Manufacturing beef export prices had an unexpected jump last week, with the 90CL Frozen Cow Indicator moving back to 600¢/kg swt and leaving cattle prices in their wake. The Steiner Group reported tighter supplies out of New Zealand and were one of the drivers, so it’s timely to take a look at cattle supplies from over the ditch.
Current levels of high mid-point break in Western Australia are causing issues for exporters in putting consignments together and meeting the required consignment specifications. This article takes a look at the current supply and price effect of high mid-point break.
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