Recent Analysis
  • By Matt Dalgleish

A revamped EYCI forecast model

Last week Mecardo unveiled their upgraded lamb price forecasting tool which allows for various supply and demand scenarios to be modelled to determine potential price impacts in the years ahead. This week we give the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) model an overhaul and a test run.

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Cattle
  • By Andrew Woods

Drought patterns in wool specifications

Wool market commentary appears to mention wool quality or selection a lot at present. The implication is that poorer wool quality makes it harder for exporters to construct their required mill consignments, with more poor quality wool spilling into lower value contracts. This article takes a look at some of the key measured wool qualities in the Australian greasy clip within a drought perspective.

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Wool
  • By Angus Brown

How much upside for lambs?

Lamb supply continues to run at strong levels which is keeping a lid on prices. We continue to hear anecdotal evidence around disastrous scanning rates, and the break in the season is yet to arrive. The consensus is that lamb prices are set for some upside. The question is how far and for how long.

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Sheep
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Stock levels at the importer level

The current projections for the global crop are relatively positive. World production could be high, however there is still a long way to go. In this update we look at the stock levels held by the major importers of wheat.

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Grain
  • By Matt Dalgleish

Testing times ahead for WA producers

Last Friday the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (DAWR) issued a statement on the proposed conditions for the forthcoming live sheep export trade over the Northern hemisphere summer. The live sheep trade is a crucial component of the WA sheep industry, underpinning lamb and sheep prices for producers within this state. Hopefully, the proposal to prohibit the trade over the June to August period won’t have the same price impact as last season.

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Sheep
  • By Angus Brown

Trading margins wide for a reason

It’s not often we get two requests for similar articles at the same time. Last week a couple of subscribers asked about trading cattle in northern NSW and southern Queensland. Additionally, my learned colleague has called the low for the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) so surely there has never been a better time to buy. As always, it depends.

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Cattle
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Why have canola prices fallen so far when we are in drought?

The canola market has lost its vigour since harvest, with declines experienced across the country. The price decline in some port zones has been upwards of 15%. In this analysis, I examine the question – In a drought impacted nation, why have canola prices declined so much?

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Grain
  • By Matt Dalgleish

Lamb price modelling

We’ve been working on upgrading our lamb price forecasting abilities at Mecardo and have recently developed an interactive modelling tool that allows us to forecast the annual average level for the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) based on key supply and demand inputs. In this analysis we take the model through a test run, playing out a handful of scenarios for the next few years to see the potential impact on lamb prices.

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Sheep