Recent Analysis
  • By Matt Dalgleish

This one is going to bruise

Beef export prices hit the skids during February/March and domestic cattle prices were on the rise as restocker activity ramped up. This meant only one thing for beef processor margins and explains why processors have been tentative in their approach to cattle markets with a Covid19 inspired drop to global beef demand on the horizon.

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Cattle
  • By Angus Brown

Way more than enough lamb for the domestic market.

The current flush of lambs hitting the market has raised concerns about winter supplies and the ability of lamb producers to keep up with domestic consumption. This prompted a look at historical domestic consumption seasonality, which showed that it would take a significant decline in slaughter to see domestic supplies at risk.

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Sheep
  • By Andrew Woods

A century of Merino prices

The scale of COVID-19 and its economic repercussions are staggering. Nearly all sectors of society and the economy are struggling to come to terms with events which continue to change at a rapid pace. With this in mind, this article looks at a Merino price series from the early 1920s onwards.

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Wool
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Corn demand destroyed?

People are working from home, flights are cancelled. For all intents and purposes, the economic gears of the world are all but shut down. This has resulted in a drastic drop in demand for crude oil. Does this impact upon ag markets?

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Grain
  • By Angus Brown

Falling beef and rising grain bad news for feeders

It’s all about the Covid-19 outbreak at the moment, with all the talk centred on the impact. This week it has been a surprise rise in grain prices and a dramatic drop in finished cattle prices which has taken our interest. Obviously these market movements are bad news for lotfeeders.

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Cattle
  • By Matt Dalgleish

Mutton to lose

Last week we ran some forecast scenarios for the ESTLI based on a Covid-19 inspired impact on global growth. This analysis follows up in a similar theme, looking at what a global financial style cut to the economic growth of our key trading partners would do to the National Mutton Indicator.

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Sheep
  • By Andrew Woods

The exchange rate is doing its bit

Last week the Australian dollar dropped by over 4 cents in one day against the US dollar, a classic reaction to turbulent events around the world. This was the second largest one day fall in the Australian dollar since it was partially floated in the early 1980s. The lower exchange is helping to cushion the down cycle in wool prices seen since 2018.

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Wool
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Physical or futures?

The wheat market is firing on all cylinders are present with futures and FX moving in the right direction. This has provided opportunities for farmers to lock in strong prices for next year. In this update, we look at whether this should be as futures (or swap) or physical.

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Grain