Thursday, February 22, 2018
Deciles: February 2018
Deciles are an important tool in your marketing toolbox, to provide a view for strategic decisions. Our collection of updated deciles include dairy, wool, livestock, grain & inputs.
Thursday, February 22, 2018
If lamb slaughter is X price will be Y.
Last week we had a stab at using Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) sheep slaughter forecast to put a price on mutton for the coming year. In theory, doing this for lamb should be easier, with less volatility in price and demand, so let’s have a go.
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
A West spread story.
Sale yard prices last week, as reported by Meat and Livestock Australia’s NLRS, show Merino lamb spreads to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) are performing better than expected for this time in the season – especially in Western Australia. Given the record wool prices being achieved at the moment, it probably comes as no surprise that Merino lamb across the country are doing so well, but why is WA Merino lamb particularly strong?
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Are higher Chinese mutton prices giving our exports a boost?
Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (DAWR) trade statistics for January show that monthly mutton flows to China are back near the peaks experienced during the demand surge during the 2013/14 seasons. Our analysis earlier this week on the mutton price forecast for 2018 indicated that Chinese demand is one of the key factors assisting mutton prices at the moment. This article takes a look at the historic relationship between trade flows to China for Australian mutton and producer prices in China and Australia.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Weaker mutton supply ‘should’ lead to higher prices.
The latest Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) Sheep and Lamb projection is forecasting slightly weaker sheep slaughter over the coming year. If we move back to the usual seasonal supply trend, we might be in for stronger prices at the back end of the year.
Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Better marking rates could put a stop to price rises.
The Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Wool and Sheepmeat October survey results were released without any fanfare back in December. In fact, it took until the projections came out for us to realise it was available. There are some interesting figures in it, not the least being a much bigger lamb crop.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Long term supply to respond to demand
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) released their Sheep Industry Projections last week, and while there were few surprises, it does reinforce that a flock rebuild is likely over the coming years. To facilitate the rebuild we are going to have to see weaker lamb and sheep supply, which comes with support for prices.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Wool margins good, but lamb still in front.
On an annual basis Agriculture Victoria releases its Livestock Farm Monitor Project (LFMP). The LFMP is financial year benchmarking with 45 years of history, and as such makes interesting reading, and analysis. For 2016-17 the LFMP confirms that Victoria sheep producers had a great year, but despite higher wool prices, lamb is still in front, except in Gippsland, interestingly.
Thursday, January 18, 2018
What’s going on with SA mutton?
Analysis of the 2018 opening saleyard prices for a wide selection of state lamb and sheep categories indicate restocker lambs, Merino lambs and some mutton classes are doing better than normal for this time in the season. Although, there seems to be a bit of an anomaly with regard to SA mutton.
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Is there value in shorn lambs?
The last time we took a look at lamb trading margins was back at the start of November, and a lot changed since then. Our ‘best case’ sell prices for December was about 50¢ to cheap at the end of the month, and store lamb prices continued to rally. With lamb shearing in full swing in key supply areas, we thought it worth looking at what these might be worth in the coming months, and whether they are worth buying, or holding.