Friday, October 18, 2019
Lower production, lower prices.
Many crop forecasters are calling the crop lower. It is therefore confusing for many why the price for cereals is dropping rather than rising. This time last year ASX wheat was A$444/mt, this week it is trading at A$353/mt. Why is that happening when the crop is in poor condition?
Friday, October 11, 2019
Delayed planting leads to delayed harvest
It’s roughly four weeks until harvest starts in earnest. We will then truly get a good indication of how much the crop has fallen since the ABARES report in September due to frost and continued dryness. In the US, delays to harvest are causing concerns with Jack Frost on his way to their northern crops.
Friday, October 04, 2019
No time like the future
The local market has risen in the last week, presenting strong prices for those who are fortunate enough to produce grain this year. In this week’s market comment, we look at ASX for 2021 and an opportunity for a Kansas-Chicago spread trade.
Friday, September 27, 2019
Down but not out?
There remains a huge amount of uncertainty when it comes to the production of this years’ Australian grain crop. This didn’t stop the ASX wheat market declining.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Grain prices on a record push?
The grain market in Australia has been on a rollercoaster since last year. The excitement has continued, and we see local markets continuing to rise. In this update we take a look the woes in Western Australia and look at whether we will hit last years pricing environment.
Friday, September 13, 2019
Oodles of overseas wheat
The WASDE report was released overnight by the US Dept of Agriculture and it points to a continued global glut of wheat. Current conditions in Australia mean that what happens overseas will have little downward pressure on local pricing.
Friday, September 06, 2019
Risk is back on the table in Australia
The Northern hemisphere is largely complete, with little in the way of uncertainty to move the markets. The focus is now on what happens locally. The risk is definitely back on the table in Australia.
Friday, August 30, 2019
The word in the west
This week I was lucky to get the opportunity to travel to the west coast to talk to producers and stakeholders in the industry. In this week’s comment I’ll cover the big talking points in the west.
Friday, August 23, 2019
The midyear fall that has been a striking pattern in recent years has reoccurred during 2019. The middle of the year is always full of little surprises which can drive the market strongly but quite often the bearish fundamentals come back to bite.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Data brings certainty or uncertainty?
The USDA report surprised most stakeholders within the industry this week. It wasn’t a welcome surprise, with prices declining across the board. In this update we take a look at the impact on pricing, and how Australian pricing is remaining strong.