Friday, May 18, 2018
Basis on the rise
The weather continues to be the biggest driver of the market both globally and now increasingly at a local level. The Australian crop is currently on the precipice, with a huge degree of risk currently being priced in. In this weekly comment, I take a look at the weather forecast and basis levels.
Friday, May 11, 2018
Directionless but still strong
After an exciting two weeks previously in the grain market, we keep a largely directionless week. The market continues to keep a close eye on the weather around the world, with the wheat production in an increasingly fragile position.
Friday, May 04, 2018
A new hope in the wheat market.
The force is strong in the wheat market, with positive pricing signals coming forth. The northern hemisphere “weather market” period is always the most volatile time for pricing, with the majority of the worlds crop being in the growth phase. After six years of strong production, the weather strikes back.
Friday, April 27, 2018
Global wheat stocks set to ‘crash’.
The world has been awash with wheat over the past six seasons. The adoption of modern farming practices and favorable weather around the world has created a situation where we have produced too much. We take a look at some new projections, and what has driven prices up in the past week.
Friday, April 20, 2018
Strike whilst the iron is hot.
The wheat market has regained some of its strength on the back of fundamentals. This is great timing as we start to plant the crop for the coming season. In this week’s comment, we look at the SRW/HRW spread and the iron ore market.
Friday, April 13, 2018
Friday the 13th, unlucky for some?
For those of a superstitious bent, today is considered to be unlucky. In this week’s comment, we take a look at futures pricing & the USDA update to global wheat supply and demand, in order to determine whether we are lucky or not.
Friday, April 06, 2018
Fundamentals and black swans.
The market has been knocked around this week, by both fundamental factors driving pricing and the black swan event in the form of President Trump. Although volatile, the market can provide pricing opportunities for Australian producers.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Buy the rumour, sell the pulse.
The agricultural trade is always full of interesting moments. As a staple food product, political decisions around the world can have a big impact. In this week’s market comment, we take a look at the conditions in the US, and rumours emanating out of India with potentially severe impacts on Australian pulse prices.
Friday, March 23, 2018
May you live in tranquil times.
There is an old Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times”, used ironically to suggest that uninteresting times are more life enhancing than interesting ones. It seems our friend Donald, would like to consign us to a lifetime of interesting times.
Friday, March 16, 2018
Sideways for the week except canola.
It was steady as she goes for wheat and barley markets, while canola has been on the slide this week. In fact, canola basis weakened further and now sits at levels more expected during a bumper harvest, not a year of tighter supply.