Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The basis of canola
Last week I was contacted by a premium subscriber, who asked the question ‘What is wrong with the canola price’. I thought it was opportune moment to take a look at pricing levels and determine if there is anything wrong.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
The start of the marketing season
The harvest is all but complete in Australia and thoughts turn to the 2019 season. Will it rain, what will we plant? In this update we take a look at the forward curve, and why it is important to keep an eye on it.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Cash in your grain and still retain exposure to the market
There will be many of our readers who use swaps as an instrument in their grain marketing toolbox. The swap is a simple tool to use, and in general, is used pre-harvest but are there opportunities to turn the swap on its head and use post-harvest?
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Surety in sorghum?
When it rains, it pours. It’s been a dry year, and to end the month the east coast has received a deluge, with many areas receiving more rainfall over the past week, than they had received for the entire year. What does this mean for sorghum?
Thursday, December 13, 2018
The final WASDE for the year
The US Department of Agriculture released their final World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates (WASDE) for 2019. Although the WASDE receives plenty of criticism (often from me), it is an important tool for the industry.
Thursday, December 13, 2018
Regional Rainfall Update - November 2018
Mecardo have created a series of regional rainfall charts across the nation in order to compare the current seasonal rainfall on a monthly basis to the long term average levels and the normal/extreme ranges.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Visualising wheat percentiles
As we fast approach the end of the year, it is worthwhile examining the current market structure as we move into 2019. In this update, I look at percentiles in relation to wheat futures markets.
Thursday, December 06, 2018
A crude harvest present.
Those who are lucky enough to be still harvesting are receiving an early Christmas present in the form of a reduced fuel bill. Diesel is one of the biggest costs on farm, so it’s worthwhile looking at this downward move.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Seasonality Update - Wheat
Harvest is in full swing throughout much of Australia and the majority of grain sales by producers will occur over the next 12 weeks. It is worthwhile examining the seasonality of wheat markets globally and locally, to give an indication of where the market is currently pricing.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
This weekend Russia and Ukraine edged closer to war. Many may recall the short conflict between Russian and Ukraine in 2014 which provided a short rally in pricing. In this analysis I take a look at the region, and what impact any disruption may cause.