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Friday, February 16, 2018

High throughput across the country weighs market.

By Matt Dalgleish  |  Source: MLA, NLRS, ACA

2018-02-16 Sheep Fig 1

2018-02-16 Sheep Fig 2

2018-02-16 Sheep Fig 3

Strong throughput numbers for both lamb and mutton across the nation this week saw falls recorded in all national sale yard indicators, ranging between 3% to 9 %. The headline Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropping 9.4% to close at 601¢/kg, while mutton was equally weak, off 8.8% to 385¢.

The East coast sale yard indicators were mostly mirroring the national falls, with many categories posting declines between 2% to 12%. In Victoria, Merino Lambs were the weakest, falling 9% to 558¢, while in NSW Restockers took the heat with a 12% drop to 598¢.

Victorian and NSW lamb yardings shown to be running above average for this time of the year, and this saw East coast throughput lift 33% on the week to sit 28% higher than the seasonal average for this time in the year – Figure 1.

Higher NSW mutton yarding was the key behind the elevated East coast figures too this week – figure 2. NSW sheep thoughput currently 34.7% over the seasonal average level for this week in the year and the added numbers of mutton has pushed the East coast levels over 100,000 head this week, an 18.7% gain on the seasonal average.

Western Australian indicators for Merino Lamb and Mutton were particularly soft, both off 19% to 509¢ and 370¢, respectively. High throughput the likely culprit there too with WA mutton yarding levels showing a solid surge this week with 27,000 head recorded – an increase over the seasonal average of 66.3% - Figure 3.

The week ahead

A wetter week is anticipated, particularly in the West, and this should stem some of the price declines experienced by producers this week. The BOM have forecast a higher chance for a wetter than average February and there hasn’t been much for the East coast for the first few weeks of the month – perhaps that means the second half of the month we will be some decent falls… fingers crossed.

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