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Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Winter lamb price peaks are here

By Angus Brown  |  Source: MLA

Key points

  • Monday’s Bendigo lamb market quoted very strong increases for all lamb prices.
  • Bendigo is a reliable leading indicator for the ESTLI.
  • Winter price peaks could last longer this year with finished lambs in short supply.

2018-06-26 Sheep Fig 1

2018-06-26 Sheep Fig 2

 

The lamb market has been building for a few weeks now, and judging by early week market reports, it might make the jump to record levels this week. The supply pull back which has been expected for a while seems to have hit this week, but how long can it last?

Many lamb producers use the lunchtime market reports on the country hour as leading indicators for the lamb market.  The Monday Bendigo report is particularly closely followed in Victoria for an idea of where the market is headed for the week.  Today, lamb producers who still have old season, or those with early new season lambs got a good report.

The Bendigo market report was today quoted as ‘exceptional’, and figure 1 shows why.  There were more lambs at Bendigo, so it wasn’t locally tighter supply driving the market.  More likely it was a lack of lambs going over the hooks, and fewer early lambs out of NSW, which has driven the market higher.

Figure 1 shows the average price of 20-22kg lambs leaping 88¢ or nearly 14% to hit a new record of 735¢ on Monday.  The market report claims almost all lambs sold made over 700¢ as buyers competing strongly for lambs.

Figure 1 also shows that the Bendigo saleyards are a pretty solid leading indicator for the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI).  Where Bendigo goes early in the week, the ESTLI tends to follow.  So don’t be surprised if the ESTLI finishes this week above 700¢ and at a new record high.

With the winter price peak about to hit the next question is how long will it last.  Figure 2 shows that on average the ESTLI starts to ease in July, but loses ground more quickly from August to October.  Last winter the ESTLI fell most heavily in July, but managed to maintain a strong price throughout the spring.

It’s hard to see lamb prices falling to far in July, with the supply of finished lambs unlikely to lift due to the dry weather in NSW, so we could see winter peaks last through until August.  Even then price downside might be limited.

What does this mean?

While rising lamb prices are good for producers, there are unlikely to be too many with lambs left to take advantage of the high prices.  Normally the winter price rally encourages early lamb producers to get lambs out early.  The lack of early lambs this year should sustain prices above 700¢ in the short term. 

When lamb supply does improve, it’s hard to see it outstripping last year’s levels.  This, coupled with continued strong demand, should continue the run of lamb prices better than 600¢ in the medium term.

Mecardo information is provided to assist in your marketing decisions. It contains a range of data and views on the current market. It is not intended to constitute advice for a specific purpose. Before taking any action in relation to information contained within this report, you should seek advice from a qualified professional. The information is obtained from a variety of sources and neither Mecardo nor Ag Concepts Advisory will be held liable for any loss or damage whatsoever that may arise from the use of information or for any error or mis-statement contained in this report. 

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