By Matthew Dalgleish | Source: MLA, ACA
After publishing our regular monthly percentile tables on a variety of livestock prices from around the nation we received a premium subscriber request to produce a decile table for the cattle through the Emerald and Gracemere saleyards.
Click here to find view the most recent percentile/decile tables that prompted the Emerald/Gracemere request.
A percentile or decile table is a tool used to measure of how often, historically, prices have fallen above or below a particular price level. It gives a brief snapshot of whether a market has more upside or downside, and how large this may be, based off the historic price variation. For example, if a price is at its 50th percentile, this means that 50% of historical prices have been below that value, and 50% of prices higher. Similarly, a 90% percentile means that, 90% of the time, prices have been lower than a particular price, and higher just 10% of the time. Click here to find out more about percentile/decile tables.
Our monthly percentile tables reference price data going back to 2004. However, the available price data for Emerald and Gracemere only goes back until 2014 so we have republished the broader Queensland table using data back until 2014 in order to compare the broader Queensland cattle market table to the Emerald/Gracemere table using the same time frame.
Figure 1 highlights the broader Queensland percentile table and includes a price column that filters the EYCI cattle into the southern Queensland saleyards of Dalby, Toowoomba, Roma and Warwick. This shows that EYCI cattle in these saleyards are currently performing better in both price and percentile terms, 666¢ and 92nd, when compared to the EYCI for the entire country at 652¢ and the 87th percentile.
As the EYCI is made up of a selection of saleyards from Victoria, NSW and Queensland the calculation is limited to the southern Queensland saleyards and excludes data from Emerald and Gracemere. However, using the raw underlying data from our database for Emerald and Gracemere we were able to construct an EYCI style index for the predominately Bos Indicus breeds based on the same weight range, fat and muscle score criteria for vealer/feeder steers and heifers that would normally form part of the EYCI. Taking a look at the EYCI style index for cattle from Emerald and Gracemere we can see that they are slightly underperforming in both price and percentile, 606¢ and 85th, when compared to the national EYCI data – figure 2.
Given the positive carcass traits attributed to the Bos Taurus breeds such as marbling, tenderness and higher yield it is not surprising to see the EYCI style Emerald/Gracemere figures based off predominately Bos Indicus breeds trading at a discount to the broader EYCI.
However, looking at some of the price data filtered into other cattle classifications (Trade Steer, Heavy Steer, Medium Cow and Feeder Steer) we can see a few anomalies that are somewhat unexpected, such as the Trade and Heavy Steers in Emerald/Gracemere trading at a premium to the broader Queensland indicators. Although, distortions like this may be present due to short term local supply/demand conditions effecting the Emerald/Gracemere regions and would not be expected to be present over the medium/longer term.
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