Recent Analysis
  • By Andrew Woods

Non mulesed volumes and price effect

AWEX analysis of wool sales this season show a tangible premium being paid for non-mulesed wool for 20 micron and finer Merino fleece, which is good news. Such a price signal is required to boost the proportion of non-mulesed wool offered for sale at Australian auctions. This article takes a look at supply and the different premiums according to wool specification.

Read Article
Wool
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Are we on the edge of the precipice

The USDA finally released their 2019 winter wheat planting estimates. The headline number is that US farmers are going to plant the lowest area to wheat since 1909. In this article, we delve deeper into the numbers.

Read Article
Grain
  • By Matt Dalgleish

ESTLI nearing seasonal lows

Trade lamb prices have softened by around 6% since the start of the season across the Eastern seaboard. However, analysis of previous seasons percentage price gains/losses shows that we may be nearing seasonal lows for the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI).

Read Article
Sheep
  • By Angus Brown

In the medium term projections look good for prices

A couple of weeks ago we looked at Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) cattle industry projections, with a lower herd and lower slaughter one of the main findings. This week we take a stab at some price forecasting based on the projected supply numbers.

Read Article
Cattle
  • By Andrew Woods

Regional wool production

Wool production varies between regions in terms of quality and quantity. For the 25 years following the collapse of the Reserve Price Scheme (RPS), sheep numbers shrank in the key production regions as crop areas increased. The other change taking place was the reversion of the flock demographics from historically high proportions of Merino at the peak of the RPS to levels more in line with pre-1980s levels. This article takes a quick look at this change.

Read Article
Wool
  • By Angus Brown

If this is not the low it is pretty close

Last week Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) released their sheep industry projections, and we noted that lamb supply is likely to take a hit this year. It should come as no surprise that sheep supply is also expected to fall, and if we talk proportionally, they are going to take a bigger hit. Prices have some serious upside from current levels.

Read Article
Sheep
  • By Andrew Whitelaw

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

The rainfall and production prospects for the coming year are an unknown, will it be colossal or dreadful? The reality is that no-one can really predict weather out 12 months with any degree of accuracy – not even astrologists. In this article we look at the ASX contract and whether it provides an opportunity for the coming season considering the drought premiums in the market at present.

Read Article
Grain
  • By Matt Dalgleish

Restockers shed light on female slaughter ratio

In October 2018 we looked at how restocker behaviour at the saleyard can give us a clue to the female slaughter ratio and provide notice as to the status of the cattle cycle, such as if we are in liquidation or rebuild phase. This analysis provides an update to the earlier article, showing what restocker activity since the start of 2019 suggests for the cattle herd.

Read Article
Cattle