Recent Analysis
  • By Angus Brown

WASDE Whammy on Corn

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) forecasts on Tuesday night. While wheat and oilseed production remained largely unscathed by wet North American weather, corn has suffered severely.

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Grain
  • By Angus Brown

Compared to the US our cattle are cheap and expensive.

In the global beef market the US is a major player. Being both one of our biggest customers for export beef, along with one of our major competitors, US prices help drive values in the Australian market. At the moment, high feed costs here, and cheap ones there are seeing a strange spread in price comparisons.

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Cattle
  • By Angus Brown

Heavy slaughter to see new flock lows

Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) released their Industry Projections for sheep last week. There were a few surprises, notably the steady lamb slaughter forecasts, along with relatively stable flock forecasts for the coming four years. A higher than expected 2018 sheep flock has been dwindled down with sheep slaughter for the first four months of 2019 25% higher than last year.

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Sheep
  • By Andrew Woods

21 MPG price cycle – where to now?

The Merino greasy wool market has had a great run since 2015, aided by a step down in the exchange rate in 2014. With prices for apparel fibres generally struggling and slower economic growth expected in the major markets, the probability for an end to the rising price cycle of the past four years appears high which implies a subsequent down cycle. This article takes a look at down cycles in the 21 MPG during the past 25 years.

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Wool
  • By Andrew Woods

Sheep offtake and flock size

Official flock projections, like many projections, usually assume an increase in flock size as the recent MLA sheep industry projections do. Hopefully, these projections are proved correct. However, the flock cannot grow without some sheep being held back on farm. This article takes a look at this mechanism in flock size variation in Australia.

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Wool
  • By Matt Dalgleish

Upgraded processor margin model

At Mecardo we spend many hours with data, busily forecasting and modelling agricultural markets. We’re also keen on constant improvement, so when we see an opportunity to advance our offering, we jump at it. Last year the Australian Meat Processor Corporation (AMPC) published a report on a processor margin model that was built in a similar fashion to the Mecardo processor cut out model and we thought it a good opportunity to upgrade.

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Cattle
  • By Angus Brown

Will it stay or will it go

It used to be unusual for US wheat prices to rally late in the northern spring and early in the summer. Generally, the winter wheat crop is set and waiting on harvest. In the last few years though, we have seen it more, so it’s worth a look at whether these rallies have been sustained, or if prices will trend lower with harvest.

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Grain
  • By Andrew Woods

A very flat micron price curve

Last week the 19 MPG finished 5 cents above the 21 MPG, which is a very small premium. In the bullish fine wool market of 1999-2001 many in the industry were carried away by the fine wool premiums, confusing a mix of cyclical factors as a permanent change in the prices structure of the greasy wool market. Given the poor performance of fine wool premiums since 2012 (with the exception of 2017) the risk is that the reverse of 1999-2001 could happen. This article takes a look at a key driver of micron premiums and discounts.

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Wool